The Leonids in 2026: a quiet year, but a dark pre-dawn sky

The honest 2026 picture: an ordinary year, not a storm

The Leonids' reputation comes from storm years, when Earth crossed a dense, fresh trail of debris from Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle and the sky rained thousands of meteors an hour. That happens only for a few years around the comet's return, which comes roughly every 33 years — its last perihelion was in 1998. In 2026 there is no reliable forecast of a storm or an outburst, so plan for the normal rate: a ZHR of around 15 per hour under ideal dark skies (International Meteor Organization). Real counts are lower under suburban skies. Anyone promising a "Leonid storm" this November is selling clicks, not astronomy.

Which night is the peak night?

The IMO 2026 calendar gives the regular Leonid maximum as 17 November at 23:45 UT (the Sun at ecliptic longitude 235.27°), and our own Skyfield calculation of that solar longitude agrees. That is just before midnight in London (11:45 p.m.), early evening in New York (6:45 p.m.) and mid-afternoon in Los Angeles (3:45 p.m.), so for North America the pre-dawn hours of the 18th come roughly 9 to 12 hours after the maximum. In Tokyo (8:45 a.m.) and Sydney (10:45 a.m.) the maximum falls in the daytime of the 18th, and the pre-dawn hours before it are 5 to 7 hours ahead of it. That is why we forecast the night of 17-18 November. The exact peak hour is uncertain — the IMO also notes a model (Maslov) that puts it earlier on the 17th, at 16h UT, with the same expected rate of about 15 — so the previous night, 16-17 November, is close behind and a good alternative if the 17th is clouded out.

The Moon: why the after-moonset hours are good

The IMO calendar only notes that the Moon is near its first quarter at the maximum; the numbers here are our own Skyfield calculation (JPL DE440s ephemeris). The Moon is about 55% illuminated around the peak: first quarter falls at 11:48 UTC on 17 November, so on the night of 17-18 November it is a waxing, just-past-half Moon in the evening sky. It sets between about 11:30 p.m. and 1:30 a.m. local time in the northern cities we checked — earlier in the east of a time zone, later in the west: 11:30 p.m. in London, 11:57 p.m. in New York, 12:08 a.m. in Los Angeles, 1:30 a.m. in Calgary. In the southern cities we checked it sets between about 12:20 a.m. in Brisbane and 2:45 a.m. in Queenstown, with Sydney, Buenos Aires and Cape Town between 1:35 a.m. and 2 a.m.

That timing matters because the radiant in Leo rises in the late evening and is highest before dawn. In the northern cities we checked it is already up when the Moon sets (it rises between about 10 p.m. and midnight), so moonset is when the productive stretch begins: about 4¾ to 6 hours of moonless sky before dawn twilight, with Leo climbing the whole time. The previous night, 16-17 November, has a thinner Moon (about 45%) that sets about an hour earlier in the northern cities we checked (about half an hour earlier in the southern ones). Enter your city in the forecast box above for your exact moonset time and dark-sky window.

One note on reading that card: its score covers the whole night, evening moonlight included, so on a clear night it may still name moonlight as the main constraint. For the Leonids the hours that count are the ones after moonset — check the moonset time shown on the card.

What makes Leonid meteors worth catching

Leonids are among the fastest of the annual showers: Earth meets the debris stream nearly head-on, so the meteors strike the atmosphere at about 71 km/s (IMO meteor shower calendar). They are often bright, and many leave faint persistent trains. The IMO shower calendar lists the activity period as 6 to 30 November, with the peak around 17 November.

Where to look — and which hemisphere

The radiant sits in the "sickle" of Leo, at about +22° declination. For northern observers it climbs high in the south-east to south before dawn. For southern observers it rises later and stays lower, and how much of the night you get depends on your latitude. By our Skyfield calculation for the peak night (using the IMO radiant position, 152° / +22°), the dark, moonless window with the radiant above the horizon is about 2⅓ hours in Brisbane, 1¾ hours in Sydney, Buenos Aires and Cape Town (radiant no higher than about 18°) and 75 minutes in Melbourne; it shrinks to about 50 minutes in Wellington and 30 in Christchurch, and in Queenstown the radiant rises only about 15 minutes before dawn twilight begins. Nearer the tropics it improves: about 2¾ hours in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo (radiant reaching about 30°) and more than 3 hours in Darwin (about 40°). Either way, don't stare at Leo: look about two-thirds of the way up the sky, 40-60° from the radiant, where meteors draw the longest trails, and take in as much sky as you can.

How to watch a November meteor shower

• Go after moonset — and keep going. In the northern cities we checked the Moon is down by 1:30 a.m. at the latest, and the radiant is already up by then. Rates build as Leo climbs, so use the hours from moonset until the start of dawn twilight, with the last couple before dawn best. At southern mid-latitudes the last hour and three quarters or so before dawn twilight is all you get; nearer the tropics, close to three hours.
• Dress for November. Hours spent lying still get cold quickly; bring a sleeping bag and a hot drink.
• No optics. Telescopes and binoculars restrict your field of view to a fraction of a degree; meteors are a naked-eye, whole-sky event.
• Protect your night vision. Give your eyes 20 minutes to adapt and use Stellarhound's red-light mode (top right) if you check your phone.
• Save your big dark-sky trip for December. The Geminids on 13-14 December 2026 are the year's richest shower (up to ~150 ZHR under ideal skies) under a thin crescent Moon.